Why the confusion about Kim Jong Un's health actually makes sense
北朝鮮キム委員長の健康状態「注視している」米大統領補佐官
(CNN)Confusing and sometimes conflicting reports emerged Tuesday about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. That was followed by intense speculation on his whereabouts, his medical condition and the future of the world's only hereditary communist state.
Initial rumblings began after North Korea's most important holiday came and went on April 15 without an appearance by Kim, which was unusual.
Then Daily NK, an online publication based in South Korea that focuses on the north, reported that Kim had received a cardiovascular system procedure on April 12, and was being treated in a villa in Hyangsan County.
CNN was unable to confirm the report, but a US official said that Washington is monitoring intelligence that suggests Kim is in grave danger after undergoing a previous surgery. A second source familiar with the intelligence told CNN that the US has been closely monitoring reports on Kim's health.
But a South Korean official told CNN that Kim is "believed to be in other parts of North Korea than Pyongyang with other North Korean top officials," and "no unusual signs supporting reports about his health conditions have been detected." It's rare for the South Korean government to divulge information about Kim's whereabouts.
The truth is, few people outside of Kim's inner circle know for sure -- his daily routine and health are some of North Korea's most closely guarded secrets. In that environment, rumors and misinformation are almost inevitable.
The young North Korean leader is revered almost like a deity within the country, and he's protected as such -- just think back to the images of Kim's bodyguards running alongside his limousine during his meetings with other world leaders in 2018. His movements and whereabouts are protected with an intense secrecy unmatched in much of the world. Even discussing rumors or misinformation about his health can get you in trouble with the state's security services, experts say.
Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in South Korea and an expert in North Korean affairs, says very few people know the intimate details of Kim's personal life -- and they are "not inclined to talk about it, because they would much prefer to remain alive."
"This is a very murky business," he said. "They (people close to Kim) have very little to gain by telling everybody what they know."
The debate about Kim's health and whereabouts is a timely reminder on an important caveat that should accompany nearly all stories on the inner workings of North Korea: The country is a black hole when it comes to gathering independent and trustworthy news.
Very few details about North Korea are revealed that are not state-sanctioned. Those who have fled the country offer invaluable insight, but defection can take weeks, months -- even years. Experts and analysts who study North Korea rely on everything from satellite images of personnel movements to a line-by-line analysis of state media dispatches to find out the truth.
NK News, a well-respected English-language North Korean monitoring website, even runs a North Korean Leadership Tracker which allows users to see the number of appearances or mentions of Kim and other high-ranking leaders in state media.
Speculation about the leader's health or whereabouts is often educated guesswork, and it often turns out to be wrong. But there are two major reasons why it happens so regularly.
No apparent heir
Any conjecture about Kim's death usually feeds into a popular narrative of North Korea as a modern-day Shakespearean tragedy.
The country has been ruled as a hereditary dictatorship since its founding in 1948 by Kim Il Sung. His son, Kim Jong Il, took over after his father's death in 1994. And Kim Jong Un took power 17 years later when Kim Jong Il died. Their eventual takeovers were telegraphed to the public before their respective fathers' deaths.
But Kim's three children are not believed to have reached adulthood yet. Even if one was being groomed for future leadership, the child would need some sort of regent to rule in an interim capacity -- something that's never happened in North Korea.
"It's not a monarchy officially. It's a monarchy for all practical purposes," Lankov said.
Michael Madden, an expert on North Korea's leadership, believes there are about 10 to 20 different scenarios that could play out should Kim be incapacitated, though cautioned against reading the tea leaves too much.
He said it's possible North Korea could choose to follow the model the Soviet Union did after the death of Joseph Stalin, another communist dictator who ruled by cult of personality, and turn to some form of collective leadership. It would likely be led Kim Jong Un's sister and close aide, Kim Yo Jong, an it's possible the body would serve until Kim Jong Un's heir is old enough to take the reins.
Kim Yo Jong has been one of the most visible members of her brother's leadership team since her trip to the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, save for a few months when she disappeared from the public eye. The other option within the family is Kim Jong Un's other brother, Kim Jong Chol, but he is best known as an Eric Clapton fan and is not as involved in politics.
"The continuity of the regime is the key," Madden said.
Madden said it's important to note that though North Korea may not have a transparent, well-defined succession plan, "in terms of continuity of government, they have that setup."
"And the reason they have that setup is because they have nuclear weapons, they have got to maintain constant command and control over the nuclear weapons assets," he added.
The nuclear question
The security and question of what happens to North Korea's nuclear weapons in the event of some sort of leadership transition is likely the one that concerns officials in Washington, Seoul and Beijing.
Most countries aim to share what Vipin Narang, a professor of political science at MIT and expert in nuclear weapons issues and strategy, calls a "Goldilocks position on their nuclear weapons."
"States want the public and others to know just enough. They want to be transparent about the capability, but kind of opaque about the procedures and the actual line of deployment to enhance deterrence," he said.
North Korea's nuclear weapons are another closely guarded secret inside the country. Little is known about how many Pyongyang has, how reliable they are, if its missiles and submarines could successfully fire them or even how Kim oversees their command and control apparatus. Intelligence experts estimate Pyongyang has dozens of warheads based on the amount of radioactive material produced at its nuclear weapons facilities, but the exact number is unclear.
"We don't know a lot about how they manage their nuclear weapons during peacetime," Narang said.
Though North Korea is still technically at war with the South and the United States, many of Pyongyang's nuclear weapons may be sitting disassembled and "there are probably very few ready systems," Narang said.
But Narang said he wouldn't be terribly concerned about the security of North Korea's nuclear weapons in the event Kim died of natural causes. Kim is, by most accounts, not a healthy man. He is overweight, under stress and was reported to be a heavy drinker at meetings with South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
"I'm usually pessimistic," Narang said, "but you have a guy who's obese, a chronic smoker, has gout, presumably some form of diabetes. They've surely thought about this contingency given his health. And with Kim Yo Jong assuming a much greater role, it's possible they've already thought about what succession look like."
While those poor lifestyle choices do not mean Kim is knocking on death's door by any stretch, when combined with his absence it does remind policy and intelligence officials with a stake in North Korea's future that they should at least be thinking about an important but uncomfortable question: How exactly does a leader lionized as a near demigod hand over the reins, whether he goes under anesthesia for a medical procedure or in the event of his death?
The truth is few people -- if any -- outside the country know for sure. But the answers carry significant implications for officials from Beijing to Seoul to Washington, because they must consider whether Kim would leave behind a massive power vacuum in a state that has successfully tested nuclear weapons, and the intercontinental-range ballistic missiles to deliver them.
Why the confusion about Kim Jong Un's health actually makes sense CNN Digital Expansion Shoot, Joshua Berlinger Analysis by Joshua Berlinger, CNN
Updated 1428 GMT (2228 HKT) April 21, 2020 US monitoring intelligence that Kim Jong Un's in grave danger after surgery Josh Berlinger
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Kim Jong Un is back for the afternoon portion of the #interkoreansummit, and so are his bodyguards running alongside his limousine
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北朝鮮キム委員長の健康状態「注視している」米大統領補佐官 2020年4月22日 4時35分
北朝鮮のキム・ジョンウン（金正恩）朝鮮労働党委員長の健康状態について、アメリカのトランプ大統領の補佐官は、注視しているものの確かなことは分かっていないと述べました。
アメリカの複数のメディアはアメリカ政府関係者の話として「北朝鮮のキム・ジョンウン朝鮮労働党委員長が、手術のあと重篤な状態になっている」と伝えていますが、韓国政府などは慎重な見方を示しています。
ホワイトハウスで国家安全保障問題を担当するオブライエン大統領補佐官は21日、記者団に対し「北朝鮮で指導者が病院や執務室をいつ出入りしているかを知るのは容易ではないが、注視している」と述べました。
そのうえでオブライエン補佐官は「キム・ジョンウン氏の容体について確かなことは分かっていない」と述べ、後継者などについて話すのは時期尚早だという考えを示しました。
キム委員長は、祖父のキム・イルソン（金日成）主席の誕生日の４月15日に合わせて、毎年主席の遺体が安置されている宮殿を訪れてきましたが、ことしは伝えられず、地方の施設で手術を受け療養しているという観測も一部で流れています。
キム委員長の動静は１週間余り途絶えており、健康状態に関心が集まっています。
北朝鮮 キム委員長が手術受け重篤との報道 韓国は慎重な見方 2020年4月21日 12時48分
アメリカのＣＮＮテレビは、アメリカ政府関係者の話として、北朝鮮のキム・ジョンウン（金正恩）朝鮮労働党委員長が手術を受け、重篤な状態になっているという情報があると伝えました。一方、韓国大統領府の報道官は、この情報について、「これまでのところ、北の内部で特異な動向は把握されていない」として、慎重な見方を示しています。
アメリカのＣＮＮテレビは、日本時間の21日午前、アメリカ政府関係者の話として、「北朝鮮のキム・ジョンウン朝鮮労働党委員長が、手術のあと、重篤な状態になっているという情報があり、アメリカ政府が、状況を注視している」と伝えました。
キム委員長は、祖父キム・イルソン（金日成）主席の誕生日である４月15日にあわせて、毎年、キム主席の遺体が安置されている宮殿を訪問していますが、ことしは訪問が伝えられず、健康状態が悪化している可能性があるという臆測も流れていました。
これについて、韓国大統領府の報道官は、コメントを出し、この中で「確認できる内容はない。これまでのところ、北の内部で特異な動向は把握されていない」として、慎重な見方を示しました。
また、韓国国防省の報道官は、21日午前の記者会見で、「北側の全般的な状況を鋭意注視している。報道について言えることはない」と述べるにとどめました。
さらに、韓国の通信社、連合ニュースは、韓国政府の当局者が、キム委員長の活動は最近まで伝えられていたことなどを指摘し、「健康の異常を推定できるものはない」と述べたと伝えています。
キム委員長の動静 12日以降報道なし 北朝鮮の国営メディアは、キム・ジョンウン朝鮮労働党委員長が今月11日に開催された党の政治局会議に出席したと12日に報道していて、その後、キム委員長の動静は伝えられていません。
12日には、国会にあたる最高人民会議が開催されましたが、キム委員長が出席したとの報道はありませんでした。
また、キム委員長は祖父のキム・イルソン主席の誕生日である４月15日には、最高指導者に就任して以来、毎年、キム主席の遺体が安置されている宮殿を訪問していますが、ことしは訪問が伝えられませんでした。
これについて韓国統一省の関係者は、「もしキム委員長が訪問しなかったのであれば、非常に異例のことだ。理由については分析する時間が必要だ」としていました。 菅官房長官「コメント控える」 菅官房長官は閣議のあとの記者会見で「ご指摘の報道は承知している。 わが国としては、北朝鮮の動向には重大な関心をもって、平素から情報収集・分析に努めている。その一つ一つについて、コメントは控えたい。引き続きアメリカなどと緊密に連携しながら、関連する情報の収集・分析を行っていきたい」と述べました。 河野防衛相「警戒監視は常に緩みなく」 河野防衛大臣は記者会見で「いろいろな報道や情報があるが、いま、コメントするレベルではない。北朝鮮に対する警戒・監視は常に緩みなくやっている」と述べました。 外務省幹部「情報収集中」 外務省幹部はＮＨＫの取材に対し「報道は承知している。現時点では、事実関係の確認は取れていないが、現在、アメリカや韓国など関係国とともに状況を注視しながら情報収集にあたっている」と述べました。
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