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ㆍ작성일	2021-08-26 21:33

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Terror threats hamper Afghanistan evacuation as Biden's deadline looms
アフガニスタン“タリバン勝利宣言”
(CNN)A grave and specific ISIS terror threat is hanging over the frantic endgame of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan with time fast running out to rescue up to 1,500 Americans and the fate of fleeing Afghans looking darker by the hour.

President Joe Biden is so far sticking to his Tuesday deadline for the final exit from a 20-year war in Afghanistan, after an initially chaotic drawdown that has since evolved into a mammoth and daring airlift of more than 95,700 people out of Kabul -- with more than 13,400 people evacuated in the last 24 hours on US and coalition flights, according to the White House.

But in an alarming sign of the deteriorating security environment, US diplomats in Kabul early Thursday local time suddenly warned American citizens to "immediately" leave several gates into the airport, citing security threats.

The warning came hours after a US defense official had told CNN that officials were alarmed by a "very specific threat stream" about the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan, which planned to attack crowds outside the airfield.

Inside, thousands of troops are braving testing conditions and intense heat to fill cargo aircraft with US citizens and Afghans who helped American troops and officials and fear gruesome punishment by the Taliban.

The question now is how long the Pentagon will give the evacuation operation before it transitions to a mission to extract thousands of troops and materiel, which could take several days and curtail the departures of noncombatants.

A source familiar with the situation told CNN's Nick Paton Walsh that there are an estimated 150 American citizens in Afghanistan who the United States needed to get to the airport. The source said the estimate is the number known to need assistance to get to the airport as of Thursday morning.
That means a race against the clock to find and extract the remaining Americans who want to leave and likely means that thousands of Afghan translators and others could be left behind, in a final tragedy of America's longest war.

But the intense military mobilization has bought Biden some political space, after the lightening collapse of the Afghan state and army directly contradicted his predictions that the Taliban would not suddenly seize power and force the United States into a hurried, humiliating retreat.

The operation has so far not cost a single American life. Biden told Americans this week that he would send no more of their sons and daughters to die in Afghanistan. And the fact that US troops are not actively seeking to round up American citizens far from the airport in Taliban territory -- apart from a few publicly known examples -- suggests the White House is keeping the risks of the operation as low as possible. But Washington is on edge, hostage to developments halfway across the globe. Any US fatalities, terror attacks or exchanges of fire with the Taliban could turn a crisis that is poised on a knife edge for the President into a full-blown political disaster, in addition to the human pain and loss they would cause.
As hundreds of Afghans reach US soil, meanwhile, attention is beginning to focus on how the US will absorb the refugees, with some Republicans, including ex-President Donald Trump, already attacking their arrival in a toxic political offensive.

ISIS-K poses 'very real' threat
US troops were already in a deeply vulnerable position on the airport, the last piece of Afghanistan they now control, after the enemy they spent two decades fighting, the Taliban, swept across the country in a lightning advance.

But the added threat from ISIS-K makes the situation even worse. The group is a sworn enemy of the Taliban and the US, so it has every reason to cause mayhem. It showed its awful potency in Kabul earlier this year in an attack on a school for girls that killed dozens of people, mostly children. Thousands of Afghans have been crushing against Taliban checkpoints in recent days, seeking access to gates controlled by US and allied soldiers. Any attack would have the potential to cause terrible casualties. ISIS-K's ranks are believed to have been swelled by escapees from Afghan prisons and potentially a number of hardened fighters from Syria.

"It's hard to overstate the complexity and the danger of this effort," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday. "We're operating in a hostile environment in a city and country now controlled by the Taliban with the very real possibility of an ISIS attack."

Blinken gave the most detailed breakdown yet of the number of Americans who may be in Afghanistan. He said US forces had so far pulled out at least 4,500 US citizens. He said the US had provided another 500 Americans with instructions on how to reach the airport safely. He said officials were inundating the remaining possible 1,000 citizens with emails, texts and calls. But he cautioned that some may have left of their own accord or may not in fact be Americans at all.

Among Americans still in the country are about 20 students from San Diego and their families who traveled to Afghanistan this summer and have been unable to get to Kabul's airport, school and congressional officials told CNN.

Since August 14, more than 82,300 people have been flown out of Kabul, and in an intense 24-hour period from Tuesday to Wednesday, around 19,000 people left on 90 US and coalition flights, Blinken said.

But the fact that even US citizens appear to be having trouble accessing the airport means that potentially tens of thousands of Afghans eligible for resettlement in the US and elsewhere may have already lost their chances.
The Taliban had already said they would stop Afghan citizens from reaching the airport. But officials in Washington said they would do everything they could to get as many Afghans out by the deadline as possible.
"They will not be forgotten," Blinken said. But perhaps ominously for those who want to leave in the next few days, he stressed that the US effort to save Afghans with ties to this country will not cease once the troops leave. It is not clear how that will happen.
"Along with American citizens, nothing is more important to me as secretary of state than to do right by the people who have been working side by side with American diplomats in our embassy," Blinken said. "We are relentlessly focused on getting the locally employed staff out of Afghanistan and out of harm's way."
But the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer that his office was fielding messages from many Afghans seeking safe exits. Asked if US forces could extract all remaining citizens and eligible Afghans, McCaul answered, "I don't think it is humanly possible." He also cited what he said were credible stories of translators who had worked for the US being intercepted at the airport, taken home to see their families killed and then being beheaded themselves. CNN has not independently verified the reports.

A growing political storm
Afghans who do manage to get out of the country are not being flown directly to the US. Many are being taken to holding centers in third countries, including Qatar. But those who have undergone security vetting and health checks have already begun to stream into the United States.
Several thousand evacuees have arrived in the US, including 1,200 who have reached the Washington, DC, area, said Maj. Gen. Hank Taylor, deputy director of the Joint Regional Operation.

A CBS News poll released over the weekend found that 81% of Americans thought that the government should help Afghans who had worked with US officials, troops and intelligence agencies come to the US.

America's role in resettling Afghans becomes next political battle in the fallout over US withdrawal
America's role in resettling Afghans becomes next political battle in the fallout over US withdrawal
But their arrival has already triggered what may turn into a new front of the bitter battle over immigration that Trump and other extremist Republicans have used to ride to power.
While still president, Trump made a deal with the Taliban to leave -- behind the Afghan government's back -- which experts say contributed to the swift collapse of the state. And he made little accommodation for the tens of thousands of Afghans who risked their lives to help US forces and officials over 20 years and are owed sanctuary in return.
Now Trump is slandering many of those same Afghans, claiming -- as he did with Mexico at the start of his 2016 campaign -- that the Taliban are not sending the country's "best" people to the United States.
"We can only imagine how many thousands of terrorists have been airlifted out of Afghanistan and into neighborhoods around the world," Trump said in an inflammatory statement on Tuesday. "What a terrible failure. NO VETTING. How many terrorists will Joe Biden bring to America?" Actually, one of the reasons why the situation has been so chaotic has been the intense vetting that Afghans have had to endure to secure special immigrant visas to the US.

But the ex-President is not alone among politicians seeking to weaponize the Afghan arrivals to activate his base voters. Ohio US Senate candidate J.D. Vance, who's competing for Trump's loyalty in a crowded GOP primary, made a similar attempt in a web video this week, raising the possibility that the issue could be a burning concern of grass roots conservatives in midterm elections next year. Biden will seek to counter such demagoguery when he holds a virtual meeting with bipartisan governors who have shown willingness to temporarily offer refuge or help resettle Afghans brought out of Kabul.

And there was one rare, hopeful note on Wednesday after an otherwise wrenching week of news from Afghanistan, when the US military announced that a baby girl born on a cargo jet after a flight from Kabul to the US Ramstein Air Base in Germany had been named Reach, after the aircraft's call sign.
CNN's Jim Sciutto, Tim Lister, Jennifer Hansler and Michael Conte contributed to this story.

Terror threats hamper Afghanistan evacuation as Biden's deadline looms

Stephen Collinson Profile

Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN

Updated 1121 GMT (1921 HKT) August 26, 2021

アフガニスタン“タリバン勝利宣言”

2021年8月16日 20時21分

アフガニスタンでは、反政府武装勢力タリバンが首都カブールに進攻し、日本時間の16日朝早く、政府に対する勝利を宣言した一方、ガニ大統領は出国し、政権は事実上、崩壊しました。

今回のタリバン進攻の背景には、ことし4月末から始まったアメリカ軍の撤退が大きく関わっています。

今月に入って次々と州都を制圧

タリバンは今月に入って次々と州都を制圧していきました。

8月6日

南西部ニムルーズ州の州都ザランジを制圧。

4月末にアメリカ軍撤退が始まってから州都の制圧は初めて。

8月7～11日

クンドゥズ州、サレプル州、タハール州、バダフシャン州などの州都を制圧。

8月12日

西部の第3の都市、ヘラートを制圧。

8月13日

南部の第2の都市、カンダハルを制圧。

この日までに34の州都のうち半数を超える18の州都を制圧。

8月14日

北部の要衝マザリシャリフなどを制圧。

8月15日

東部ナンガルハル州など合わせて6つの州都を制圧。

9割余の31の州都を支配下に置き、首都カブールに進攻。

8月16日

政府に対する勝利宣言。

タリバン米軍の軍事作戦で一度は政権崩壊

そもそもタリバンはどんな組織なのでしょうか。

タリバンは、旧ソビエト軍撤退後の内戦で国内が疲弊していたさなかの1994年にアフガニスタン南部で結成されました。

タリバンとは、イスラム教を学ぶ「神学生」という意味で、隣国パキスタンのイスラム神学校で教育を受けた学生たちが「真のイスラム国家の樹立」を掲げて結成しました。

勢力を急速に拡大しながら、2年後の1996年には、首都カブールを制圧して政権を樹立し、国土のほとんどを支配下に置きました。

イスラム教を極端に厳しく解釈した政策をとり、女性の就労や教育を制限したほか2001年には、「偶像崇拝はイスラム教の教えに反する」として、世界的な仏教遺跡であるバーミヤンの大仏を爆破し、国際的な批判を浴びました。

2001年のアメリカ同時多発テロ事件では、首謀者である国際テロ組織アルカイダのオサマ・ビンラディン容疑者の身柄の引き渡しを拒否したため、アメリカ軍などが、アフガニスタンへの軍事作戦に踏み切り、タリバン政権は崩壊しました。

4月末から米軍撤退各地で攻勢を強める

しかし、タリバンは反攻の機会をうかがっていました。

政権崩壊後、タリバンの一部の勢力は拠点のあった南部カンダハルを中心に態勢を立て直したり、隣国パキスタンとの国境地帯に潜伏したりして戦闘能力を増強。

そして、2014年にアフガニスタンに駐留する国際部隊の大部分が撤退したのをきっかけに、その隙を突くように勢力を盛り返し、テロや襲撃を繰り返すようになりました。

その一方で、タリバンは2013年に、中東カタールの首都ドーハに対外的な窓口となる事務所を開設し、アフガニスタンの和平に向けて、当時のアメリカのオバマ政権と水面下で接触を続けたほか、2018年からはトランプ政権と和平交渉に向けた協議を行い、2020年2月、アフガニスタンに駐留するアメリカ軍の完全撤退を含む和平合意に署名しました。

和平合意を受けてアメリカ軍がことし4月末から撤退を始める中、タリバンは、アフガニスタン各地で攻勢を強めて支配地域を拡大していきました。

米軍撤退の背景対中国戦略と世論の“戦争疲れ”

では、どのようにアメリカ軍撤退は決まったのでしょうか。

アメリカ側は2011年にビンラディン容疑者を殺害したことや戦費の削減を求めるアメリカ議会などの声を受け、段階的に現地の部隊の規模縮小を進めます。

さらに2017年に就任したトランプ前大統領はアフガニスタンからの撤退を目指してタリバン側と和平交渉を続け、去年2月に初めての和平合意に署名しました。

アメリカ政府とタリバンの和平合意ではアフガニスタンに駐留するアメリカ軍などが合意から14か月以内に完全撤退することが盛り込まれ、ことし5月1日までという撤退の期限が示されました。

ただ現地では和平合意以降も戦闘やテロが相次ぎ、ことし1月に発足したバイデン政権は期限を4か月余り延期して同時多発テロから20年となることし9月11日までに完全撤退させると決めました。

さらに7月、バイデン政権は現地のアフガニスタン政府軍には十分な力が備わっているなどとして完全撤退の時期を8月末とする方針を発表しました。

バイデン政権の高官はアフガニスタンから部隊を完全撤退させる背景について軍事的な活動を活発化させる中国に対抗するため人員や資源を再配置する戦略の一環でもあるとの認識を示しています。

また戦闘の長期化によって戦費や派遣された兵士の数も積み上がりアメリカ国内の世論が「戦争疲れ」に傾いていったこともバイデン大統領の決定を後押ししたものとみられます。

米政府が共同声明“女性の人権確保など求める”

アメリカ政府は15日、日本やイギリスなど60か国余りと共同声明を発表しました。

声明では、タリバンを念頭に「アフガニスタン全土におよぶ権力を持つ者は、人命と財産を保護し、治安と秩序を速やかに回復させる責任がある」として、アフガニスタン人や外国人が国外に安全に退避できるよう求めています。

そのうえで「アフガニスタンの人たちは安全と尊厳が保たれた状態で生活ができなければならない」として、今後の政権運営にあたって、女性の人権の確保などを求めています。

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