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Dismal quarter pushes Japan into recession
HONG KONG (CNNMoney)
The Japanese economy slipped into recession in the third quarter, a surprisingly poor performance that could delay a planned sales tax hike and trigger new elections.
Gross domestic product shrank by an annualized 1.6% in the three months ended September, Japan's Cabinet Office said Monday. The result was much worse than the 2.2% expansion expected by economists.
On a quarterly basis, Japan's GDP declined by 0.4% as business investment slipped. Economies are commonly described as being in a technical recession after two straight quarterly contractions.
The disappointing result comes as Japan faces a full slate of questions over tax policy and the country's plan for economic revival -- dubbed "Abenomics."
Japan's consumption tax was increased to 8% in April in a bid to improve the country's fiscal position, and the government is now agonizing over whether it should implement an additional bump to 10%. The first increase set off a boom and bust cycle that wiped out growth in the second quarter, as consumers drastically changed their spending patterns.
Related: Japan's economic revival is in jeopardy
The question is whether Japan's fragile recovery can withstand another tax increase -- and whether Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has enough political capital to make his decision on the matter stick.
Japan has more government debt that any other nation, a top concern for supporters of the tax rise. Critics say Tokyo must find ways to generate solid growth before turning to fiscal matters.
Speculation has mounted in recent days that Abe will call for snap elections, to take place in December, that would reset Japan's election clock and give the prime minster the mandate he needs to delay the tax hike.
"In light of the sharp fall in today's preliminary estimate, it now looks likely that Abe will call off the hike and announce snap elections," Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics said in a research note.
Related: Bank of Japan stuns market with even more stimulus
Abe, who has staked his reputation on economic revival, received some surprise support in late October when the Bank of Japan announced that it would go for broke and expand its already aggressive stimulus plan.
The idea is that further easing, combined with government spending and structural reforms, will stave off deflation, leading to more robust growth for the world's third-largest economy.
Dismal quarter pushes Japan into recession
By Charles Riley @CRrileyCNN November 17, 2014: 5:36 AM ET
キム第１書記の特使 ロシアに到着11月18日 8時36分 北朝鮮のキム・ジョンウン（金正恩）第１書記の特使として朝鮮労働党のチェ・リョンヘ書記がロシアに到着し、北朝鮮と中国との政治面での関係が冷え込むなか、チェ書記はロシアとの関係強化に向けて協議する見通しです。
ロシアのタス通信によりますと、キム第１書記の特使としてロシアに派遣された朝鮮労働党のチェ・リョンヘ書記は、１７日夜、モスクワの空港に到着しました。
ロシア外務省によりますと、チェ書記は２４日までロシアに滞在して核問題や経済関係の強化について協議する見通しで、滞在中、プーチン大統領と会談する可能性があります。
北朝鮮は、中国との政治面での関係が冷え込むなか、政府高官を相次いでロシアに派遣しており、先月１日にリ・スヨン外相がラブロフ外相と会談したのに続き、今月８日には国防相にあたるヒョン・ヨンチョル人民武力相がプーチン大統領と会談するなど、ロシアとの関係強化に努めています。
今回のチェ書記とロシア側との一連の協議では、キム第１書記のロシア訪問についても話し合われるかどうか注目されます。
一方、ロシアとしては、ウクライナ情勢を巡って欧米との対立が深まるなか、アジア重視の姿勢を鮮明にしており、その一環として北朝鮮との関係強化に向けて動いているとみられます。
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